The Romania Constitutional Court (RRC) ruled this week that President Klaus Iohannis has to sign the decrees for dismissal of ministers released by Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă and sign the decrees appointing the interim ministers to the ministers which were run by ALDE ministers. According to the decision, the President will have to sign the revocation decrees of the Minister of Justice, Ana Birchall, and of the Deputy Prime Minister for economic issues Mihai Fifor and the appointment decrees for the interim ministers proposed to the portfolios of Energy, Relations with Parliament and the Environment.

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Internal Affairs    The Romanian prime minister found a technical solution to allow the normal functioning of the Government meetings after the president refused to appoint interim or full ministers in the vacant positions. Thus, by a government decision, it was transferred from the Ministry for Relations with the Parliament to the General Secretariat of the Government, the competence to give a note for the draft laws and emergency ordinances considered by the Government. In the absence of a holder in the Ministry for Relations with Parliament, the Government could no longer adopt before this week's decision ordinances and emergency bills. The promotion of this solution allowed the resumption in normal conditions of the activity as of this week.   The absence of full or interim ministers in important portfolios (such as the Environment), even if it no longer affects the functioning of the government meetings, impacts the activity of the respective ministries, being expected to cause delays in promoting different regulatory initiatives by them (e.g. at the Environment, Energy and Home Affairs ministries).   In an attempt to quickly restore the full government formula, the Prime Minister sent new nominations for vacant portfolios to President Klaus Iohannis this week. For the minister positions vacant due to the resignation of ALDE members, the prime minister nominated members of this political group (to emphasize that the political component of the government will not change and, as such, that it is not necessary for them to be endorsed by the Parliament) (EN). The president rejected the new proposals, stressing once again that he expects the Government to follow the procedure of a support vote in parliament (EN).   In this context, a first solution to the institutional deadlock between the President and the Prime Minister is expected to occur along with the decision of the Constitutional Court of Romania. Its ruling should be expected to take place at the earliest on September 16-22. The government will likely await the Constitutional Court ruling and postpone the moment of asking the parliament for an endorsement vote of the new ministers. It is worth pointing out that the PSD Government is using this period to attract the support of different MPs, mainly from ALDE. The former minor government party is going through strong internal convulsions after several leading leaders (at the same time also MPs) agreed to collaborate with PSD and were excluded from the party (former Minister of Foreign Affairs and ALDE Vice President Teodor Melescanu was elected this week President of the Romanian Senate, with PSD support) (EN). The PSD does not hold however presently the number of votes necessary to ensure its majority in the Parliament's plenum.   At the other pole, the opposition forces continue to be divided on future developments that should occur after the adoption of a no confidence motion against the Dancila government. Political negotiations will continue in the new week, and the submission and debate of the censorship motion will continue to be postponed.   International Affairs The designated President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen announced the list of Commissioners to be part of the future formula of the European Executive. The Social Democrat MEP Rovana Plumb is nominated to take over the Transport portfolio. The list was approved this week by the Council of the European Union (EN). In the next period will take place the hearing of each designate-Commissioner in the Special Committees of the European Parliament, following which the plenary of the European Parliament will give a vote on the entire proposed formula of the new Commission. The European Council will have to approve then with majority of votes the new Commission.   Dacian Ciolos, president of PLUS Romania but also of the political group RENEW Europe in the European Parliament, announced that the group MPs will not vote in favor of Rovana Plumb in her hearing by the Transport and Tourism Committee, due to the suspicions regarding her moral integrity. For the same reason, the RENEW Group has adopted a similar position towards other candidates nominated for the position of European Commissioners (EN). There is a possibility that the vote in the Committee on Transport and Tourism could be one of rejecting the Rovana Plumb, in which case Ursula von der Leyen will most likely ask Romania government to nominate a new candidate.   It is worth underlining that this week the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a cut in its main deposit rate by 10 basis points, to -0.50%, a record low. ECB also announced that a new bond-buying program will start on November 1st. The program will entail 20 billion euros per month of net assets purchases for as long as it is necessary (EN).   ECB decisions came in line with the economists’ expectations. They are aimed at revigorated to stimulate and reinvigorate the euro zone economy, given the negative trends registered this year.   Economic & Fiscal Updates   Given the political tensions and the absence of a formal majority in parliament, the economic agenda of the government has been rather poorly represented in the last period. In this context, it is worth noting the latest recorded macroeconomic developments, namely the confirmation of the economic growth of 4.7% in H1 2019 compared to H1 2018, respectively 1% in Q2 2019 compared to Q1 2018 (EN), as well as the slight reduction of inflation from 4.1% in June to 3.9% in July (EN). Economic growth continues to be sustained mainly by consumption, and the trade deficit continues to grow. Thus, Romania's trade deficit grew to 9.48 billion euros in the first seven months of the year, 1.89 billion euros more than recorded in the similar period last year (EN). The industrial production fell with 3% in July compared to the same month of 2018. It is the second month in a row that the industrial output contracts (EN).

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President Klaus Iohannis refused this week to appoint the interim ministers to the positions that have become vacant in the Government after the resignation of three ALDE ministers (for Energy, for the Relation with the Parliament and for Environment portfolios) (EN). In return, Prime Minister Viorica Dancila announced that she asked the Constitutional Court to verify the existence of a constitutional conflict between the Government and the Presidency on this topic (EN). Currently, in the Government of Romania, along with the vacant ministerial positions that were held by the ALDE ministers, there are another two more portfolios (at Education and Home Affairs) where the interim period ensured by two members of the Cabinet is close to reach the legal deadline (of 45 days). The position of vice premier on economic issues is also not represented since August 15. In these cases (Education & Internal Affairs) if the interim terms will reach the end, the state secretaries will receive delegation of powers in advance from the interim ministers, and the ministries functioning will not be impacted. In the case of the portfolios that were held by the three ministers of ALDE, before submitting their resignations, they did not delegate their powers to state secretaries from the respective ministries. This led to the emergence of a blocking situation at the Government level - all bills and emergency ordinances adopted by the Gov’t have to be signed for example by the Minister for relations with the parliament. Not surprising, no government meeting was held this week. A government decision issued on Monday allow the Government to issue emergency ordinances without the signature of Minister for Liaison with Parliament. The settlement by the Constitutional Court of the conflict between the Government and the President will last at least a few weeks. The refusal of President Klaus Iohannis to appoint interim ministers is a form of pressure on the prime minister to speed up the demand for a parliamentary vote to appoint new full ministers. The government has about 30 days from now to complete the procedure, but it does not seem to be in a hurry to proceed. At the same time, the opposition has not advanced significantly in order to submit and vote on the censorship motion. The current political status quo is advantageous for the opposition formations, allowing their candidates to enter the electoral race for the Romanian presidency with an anti-government speech. We anticipate therefore that in the course of next week neither of the two procedures will be finalized, but it is likely that their timetable for debate will become clearer.

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The ALDE leadership decided this week the withdrawal of the party from government (EN). 3 of the 4 ALDE ministers (the Minister for the Environment, the Minister for Energy and the Minister for the Relations with the Parliament) have resigned from the Cabinet (EN). The Foreign Minister chose to remain in the Cabinet and resigned from ALDE. During the next two weeks it is expected to see clarifications regarding the state secretaries representing ALDE who will continue to hold their positions or who will resign. It is also to be clarified how PSD and ALDE branches will collaborate in county councils and local councils where the two parties hold the majority. ALDE's departure from the Government implicitly leads to the dismantling of the parliamentary majority that resulted from the 2016 parliamentary elections. In this context, the leader of the main opposition parliamentary formation, PNL, declared that the party will submit a new censorship motion (EN). All opposition parties have announced that will support such an endeavor. The simple majority in the parliamentary plenary session is formed by the support of 233 parliamentarians. The opposition formations currently have 235 parliamentarians, the PSD has 202 parliamentarians, the national minority group consists of 17 parliamentarians and 11 are independent MPs. From the point of view of mathematical calculations, if a new censorship motion will be indeed supported by all the 6 opposition parliamentary formations it will stand good chances to be adopted (especially if some independent parliamentarians or from the national minority group will also support such an endeavor). However, even in this scenario PSD can continue to hold the majority in the upper house of the Parliament, the Senate of Romania (with 69 senators, one more than the one needed to ensure the simple majority). According to the PNL leader, the censorship motion will be submitted for debate and vote in Parliament only after 233 parliamentarians will sign for its registration (the exact number of MPs needed for the censorship motion adoption). This approach indicates that the Opposition is not in a hurry to submit it, a censorship motion going to be voted at earliest in 2-3 weeks and at latest near the presidential elections. Until then, another test that can indicate the support that the PSD Government is enjoying in the parliament will be represented by the vote to support the new proposals of ministers, in the places vacated by the departures of the ALDE ministers. Due to the change in the political configuration of the Government following the exit of ALDE from the government, it is necessary to validate the new ministers in the parliament (EN). The prime minister has 45 days to request a vote of support in parliament. If the majority of MPs will vote to support the proposals it will become clear that there is still no alternative parliamentary majority. If the vote is negative, the Government will continue to work and will have to come up with other proposals. Most likely the opposition formations will prefer to see if the government still has the needed parliamentary support for the validation of the new ministers, before submitting the censorship motion. If, however, the government will postpone the request for a support vote to the upper limit of the 45 days, the public pressure will increase on the opposition formations to evaluate firstly the government's support through the censorship motion. Also, worth mentioning is the withdrawal from the electoral race for the presidential elections of the president of ALDE, Calin Popescu Tariceanu (EN). ALDE and Pro Romania announced that they will support the independent candidacy of former MEP Mircea Diaconu (EN). Also, Alexandru Cumpanasu, president of an NGO and uncle of the kidnapped and most likely killed adolescent in a recent case that benefited from a wide media exposure, announced his intention to run for office. Both candidates (if the second one will materialize) will attract votes especially from the area of ​​the left wing electorate, affecting the chances of Prime Minister Viorica Dancila to enter the second round of the presidential elections.

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Monday, August 26th, 2019, PM Viorica Dăncilă was not present at the coalition meeting to discuss the future of the SDP - ALDE relations in Government. As such, a decision was not yet reached on whether or not ALDE will no longer be a part of the coalition. Negotiations have been going on for a while now and certain possible scenarios are now taking shape more clearly. A Facebook post by Varujan Vosganian sets Wednesday as a possible day for rescheduling the meeting so that the PM will attend. The PM also took to Facebook to address rumours that the SDP might also be withdrawing from the Government. According to her post, the SDP will not withdraw, and blames cold political calculations on some members of ALDE for the current falling out. The PM has warned that she may seek allies within the opposition should ALDE not return to the fold.

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