The latest report of the Group of States against Corruption (GRECO), the Council of Europe anti-corruption body, on the progress of the anti-corruption fight in Romania, have been published. The reports conclude that Romania made little progress in implementing GRECO's previous recommendations. One of the recommendations concerns the dissolution of the Special Section for Investigating Magistrates (EN). The current government is unlikely to amend its own changes to the laws of Justice promoted in the last couple of years. However, its decision not to promote further changes will allow normalization of its dialogue with European partners. At the same time, the political opposition will be able to keep the theme of Justice on the public agenda underlining developments in recent years and introducing in their government program their cancellation after acceding to government. The Government set by Government Decision the date proposed by the Permanent Electoral Authority for holding presidential elections. The elections for Romania President will take place on November 10, Round I, and November 24, Round II (EN). Fixing the date of the presidential election increases the political pressure on the main political parties for announcing their candidates for this position. PNL will support the current president, Klaus Iohannis, in the race to get a new mandate. USR proposes its leader Dan Barna, voted party candidate at the congress this weekend. Howvever, USR and PLUS will have a joint candidate and it will have to decide if it propose Dan Barna or Dacian Ciolos (PLUS chairman and leader of the RENEW Europe group in the EP). Also, the minority governing party, ALDE, has designated its president and speaker of the Senate, Calin Popescu Tariceanu, to enter the presidential race. The main governing party, PSD, has postponed the nomination of a candidate to date. The party will have to choose between appointing a candidate or supporting the ALDE candidate. For the first time in the 30-year history of the party, it faces the risk to see its potential candidate not entering into the second round of the presidential election. One of the most important political decisions of this period concerns the promotion of a new governmental reshuffle (EN). The prime minister has completed the evaluation of the activity of eight ministries and during a session of the PSD leadership on Monday, July 15, will discuss the list of the ministries that may be reshuffled. Making a government reshuffle will allow Prime Minister Viorica Dancila to remove ministers backed by former PSD leader, Liviu Dragnea, and form his own team, rewarding those who have supported her to be elected president of the party. More clarifications on the government reshuffle will occur today following the PSD party leadership.

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The Romanian Parliament approved in this week extraordinary session the leadership of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), the members of the Fiscal Council and the new president of the National Audiovisual Council. Mugur Isarescu, the governor of the National Bank of Romania, received the support of parliamentarians for a new term in office of 5 years (the 7th consecutive term) at the helm of the institution (EN). Moreover, PSD's new elected president, Prime Minister Viorica Dancila, decided to send on this occasion a message of political strength, replacing the leader of the party political group from Romania Senate, Serban Nicolae. In the week before, he criticized Viorica Dancila's decision to announce PSD support for the BNR Governor, Mugur Isarescu. With this rapid replacement of PSD Senator leader and the 6-month party suspension for the mayor of District 3, Robert Negoita (EN), Viorica Dancila conveyed to the rest of the party's the image of an authoritative leader, deterring other party members to question in the near future her leadership/performance. The new president of the PSD’ process of strengthening her authority should be expected to continue in the next period - including in the form of a government reshuffle / restructuring, which will remain a likely scenario of evolution over the coming months.

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At the end of this week, an extraordinary Congress of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) took place. On this occasion, Viorica Dancila, interim president of the formation and prime minister of Romania, was elected by a large majority as PSD president. In the second political position as importance from the party, that of the executive president, was elected Eugen Teodorovici, the Minister of Public Finance. Mihai Fifor, the president of the PSD National Council and former Minister of Economy and later of Defense during 2017 - 2018, was elected secretary general of the Social Democratic Party (EN). The clear victory of the new leadership formula indicates that the risk of a new wave of departures from PSD departure is presently reduced in the immediate period. A relatively small number of MPs may choose to leave the party in autumn, negotiating for themselves eligible positions on other parties’ lists for the next November parliamentary elections. Once the subject of the extraordinary Congress was closed, the main subject of internal concern within PSD will be that of a government reshuffle / restructuring, which may take place in the coming weeks. It is worth stressing that the election of Eugen Teodorovich as Executive Chairman the formation, places him in the medium-term future as the main alternative at the party's presidency.

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The no-confidence motion against the Government did not receive the number of votes needed to be adopted in the joint plenum of the Parliament. 200 MPs voted in favor of the no-confidence motion, while the threshold for its adoption was of 233 (EN) Following the failure of the no-confidence motion, the stability of the government will no longer be questioned until September - when a new parliamentary session will start and the political opposition will be able to file a new no-confidence motion. However, changes in the current governmental formula may occur in the upcoming period. PM Viorica Dancila entered the race for PSD presidency and in order to increase her chances of being elected in this position at the PSD Congress on June 29, she will be willing to offer positions within the Government (ministerial & state secretaries’ level) to her key potential supporters. The internal expectations in the Social Democrat party regarding the removal from office of government members close to the former party president, Liviu Dragnea, creates a favorable context for Viorica Dancila in making a governmental reshuffle.

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The parliamentary opposition filed a no confidence motion against the government headed by Viorica Dancila. The motion will be debated and voted on Tuesday, June 18th (EN). In order for it to be adopted, it is necessary that 50% +1 of the Romanian parliamentarians, namely 233, would vote for the government dismissal. At the moment, the motion is more likely to be rejected. The government parties (PSD + ALDE) have 238 MPs. For the censure motion to be adopted, it should be supported by all non-PSD and ALDE parliamentarians, as well as by 6 MPs of the two parties. In addition, it is expected that not all 17 representatives of the national minority group other than the Hungarian minority will support the motion. Opposition parties would need at least 15 to 20 additional votes to pass the motion.

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