Weekly Fiscal andd Political Report, May 10 – May 17, 2019
The political week did not bring any significant developments. Most political actors have focused their efforts on campaigning actions. In an INSCOP poll released this week, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL) are leading, almost on par, in the voters' preferences - both with over 26% of the preferences of those who say they will come to the vote, respectively 39% of respondents) (EN). As we mentioned before the start of the electoral campaign, political and public pressure on government formations will most likely increase after the European Parliament elections. PNL leader Ludovic Orban announced that his party, together with other opposition forces, will file a no-confidence motion after the European Parliament elections (RO). At the same time, the outcome of the parliamentary elections, even if it will show a shrinking support for the PSD and although it may lead to an increase in internal tensions within the party, will not immediately change the current status quo of the parliamentary forces. The leader of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) stated this week he does not see the possibility of another majority emerging after the European Parliamentary elections (RO) (the support of the Hungarian minority formation is essential for the potential success of a noconfidence motion). A possible censure motion may have an opposite effect than the ne anticipated by its initiators: not to remove the current government, but rather to show the absence of an alternative majority.


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Weekly Fiscal and Political report May 3 - May 10, 2019
In Sibiu, an informal European Council summit was held on 9 May. Heads of State and Government of the EU 27, the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission and the President of the European Parliament attended. Due to the informal nature of the meeting, as well as the near end of mandate of the leaders of the European institutions, no decisions have been taken on EU main current issues of debate. At the same time, European leaders, in order to mark the moment of the Summit and give a signal of unity before the elections for the European Parliament, have adopted a political statement. It expresses support for 10 general commitments, such as defending a single Europe, protecting the rule of law and fundamental rights, or putting Europe as a responsible global actor. The statement presents just symbolic relevance (EN).


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Special Report on the Romanian candidates to the European Parliament
On May 26th, Romania will hold elections for the European Parliament. Romania will have 32 mandates. The elections for the EP will represent an important test both for the governing parties (PSD+ALDE) as well as for the main opposition forces (PNL and the Alliance USR & PLUS).  The opinion polls are forecasting a close race between PSD and PNL for ranking on the first place in the EP elections. In our assessment it is possible for PSD to win the EP elections (benefiting out of a reduced turnout than in general elections as well as due to the support provided by its wide national network of party members as well as by its numerous local officials). However, PSD should be expected to register a significant loss when compared to the results it has obtained in the last legislative elections (in November 2016), respectively 45%. Furthermore, we anticipate that the aggregated score of the governmental parties will not surpass the level of 50%. This will severely affect their overall political legitimacy. It is also possible that the main opposition parties will register an aggregated electoral score larger than the one of the two governmental parties. If this will be the case, the opposition will have an additional argument to claim that most Romanians are supporting a change in government. As the score that will be registered by PSD will be significantly lower than the one registered in 2016 elections, the party’ MPs will start to evaluate their chances of winning a new term in the 2020 parliamentary elections. This may increase several MPs’ appetite of migrating in the upcoming months to other parliamentary parties (stretching to maximum the stability of the governmental majority and increasing its dependence to UDMR). The poor performance of PSD (when compared to past results) will lead to the increase of the party active’ dissatisfaction towards its leader, Liviu Dragnea, internal tensions being likely to grow.  Another element of political relevance related to the EP elections refers to the score that will be registered by each of the two main forces of the political opposition:  PNL and the Alliance USR & PLUS. If PNL will be ranked at a large difference to the Alliance USR&PLUS this will increase its arguments in negotiating the Alliance support for the national liberal candidate in this fall presidential elections: the incumbent president, Klaus Iohannis. If the difference will be rather small (bellow 5 percent), the Alliance USR&PLUS may be then willing to contemplate the possibility of endorsing a different candidate in the first round of the presidential elections.    The May 26th referendum on Judicial issues called by President Klaus Iohannis is aimed to boost the electoral support for the opposition forces and to increase the overall turnout to the elections. However, if the turnout at the referendum will not reach the 30% threshold, it will not be validated. In this scenario, PSD will be encouraged to continue its agenda of amending the Judicial framework. If the turnout at the referendum will be over 30%, but bellow 50%, PSD will still be able to claim that the Romanians that choose to not cast their vote agree with its agenda to amend the Judicial framework. The higher the turnout to the Referendum will be, the more will capitalize President Klaus Iohannis the result as an electoral confirmation of his agenda against PSD and set a good basis to reach his main objective for 2019:  securing a second term.


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Secretariatul General al Guvernului: Programul Legislativ al Guvernului României pentru anul 2019
Secretariatul General al Guvernului a publicat documentul Programului Legislativ al Guvernului României pentru anul 2019. 1. Ministerul Afacerilor Interne: Proiect de Lege privind înființarea, organizarea și funcționarea Sistemului Informatic Național de Semnalări (SIS) și participarea României la Sistemul de Informații Schengen (termen: Noiembrie 2019).  2. Ministerul Comunicațiilor și Societății Informaționale: Proiect de Lege privind facturarea electronică în domeniul achizițiilor publice (termen: Martie 2019) Proiect de Lege privind identificarea electronică și serviciile de încredere pentru tranzacțiile electronice (termen: Mai 2019) Proiect de Lege privind interoperabilitatea sistemelor informatice din administrația publică (termen: Septembrie 2019) 3. Ministerul Economiei: Proiect de Lege privind serviciile de plată și pentru modificarea unor acte normative (termen: Martie 2019) 4. Ministerul Energiei: Proiect de Lege privind modificarea și completare a Legii energiei electrice și a gazelor naturale nr.123/2012 (termen: Martie 2019) Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Legii nr.85/2018 privind constituirea și menținerea unor rezerve minime de țiței și/sau produse petroliere (termen: Aprilie 2019) 5. Ministerul Finanțelor Publice   Proiect de Lege privind activitatea de emitere de monedă electronică  (termen Martie 2019)  Proiect de Lege privind înființarea instituțiilor de credit, inclusiv a Băncii Naționale de Dezvoltare a României (termen Martie 2019)  Proiect de Lege privind modificarea și completarea Legii nr.85/2014 privind procedurile de prevenire a insolvenței și de insolvență (termen Martie 2019)  Proiect de Lege privind reglementarea fondurilor de investiții alternative și pentru modificarea și completarea unor acte normative (termen Martie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Legii nr.207/2015 privind Codul de procedură fiscal (termen martie 2019).  Proiect de Lege privind prevenirea și combaterea evaziunii fiscale (termen Iunie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea şi completarea Legii nr.227/2015 (termen Iunie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru aprobarea plafoanelor unor indicatori specificați în cadrul fiscal (termen Iulie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru transpunerea Directivei 822/2018 în Legea nr.207/2015 privind Codul de procedură fiscală (termen Septembrie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru transpunerea Directivei (UE) 2018/1910 în Legea nr.227/2015 privind Codul fiscal (termen Septembrie 2019)  6. Ministerul Justiției  Proiect de Lege pentru acordarea de compensații financiare persoanelor care au executat în condiții necorespunzătoare pedepse sau măsuri privative de libertate (termen Iunie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Legii nr.286/2009 privind Codul Penal, a Legii nr.135/2010 privind Codului de Procedură Penală, precum și a Legii nr.254/2013 privind executarea pedepselor și a măsurilor privative de libertate dispuse de organele judiciare în cursul procesului penal (termen Iunie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Ordonanței Guvernului nr.26/2000 cu privire la asociații și fundații (termen Noiembrie 2019)  7. Ministerul Muncii și Justiției Sociale  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Legii nr.263/2010 privind sistemul unitar de pensii publice (Martie 2019)  8. Ministerul pentru Mediul de Afaceri, Comerț și Antreprenoriat  Proiect de Lege privind incubatoarele și acceleratoarele de afaceri (termen Aprilie 2019)  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Legii nr.120/2015 privind stimularea investitorilor individuali - business angels (termen Septembrie 2019) ​​ 9. Ministerul Sănătății  Proiect de Lege pentru modificarea și completarea Legii nr.95/2006 privind reforma în domeniul sănătății (termen Aprilie 2019)


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WEEKLY POLITICAL REPORT February 25 – March 4, 2019
On February 27th, 2019, ALDE president Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu announced that ALDE will participate alone in the elections for the European Parliament. As such, on the ALDE lists, the first three candidates are European parliamentarians Norica Nicolai and Renate Weber and former president of the Permanent Electoral Authority Daniel Barbu. In the Government Sitting of February 27th, the Government adopted several Government Resolutions regarding the organization of the European Parliament Elections. Among these, the Government established the authorities in charge with organizing the elections and the budget for this event.


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