Weekly Fiscal and Political Report - June 10 – June 16, 2019
The parliamentary opposition filed a no confidence motion against the government headed by Viorica Dancila. The motion will be debated and voted on Tuesday, June 18th (EN). In order for it to be adopted, it is necessary that 50% +1 of the Romanian parliamentarians, namely 233, would vote for the government dismissal. At the moment, the motion is more likely to be rejected. The government parties (PSD + ALDE) have 238 MPs. For the censure motion to be adopted, it should be supported by all non-PSD and ALDE parliamentarians, as well as by 6 MPs of the two parties. In addition, it is expected that not all 17 representatives of the national minority group other than the Hungarian minority will support the motion. Opposition parties would need at least 15 to 20 additional votes to pass the motion.


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Weekly Fiscal and Political Report, 2 - 9 June 2019
The Social Democrat Party is still seeking its way following the conviction of its leader in jail. Party members have remained united so far to maintain government, but tensions have begun to emerge at the end of the week. Viorica Dancila, acting prime minister and interim president of PSD, received the support of most members of the Executive Committee for organizing a party congress at the end of June (EN). This decision benefits Viorica Dăncilă, who will have the first chance to be elected president of the party (other potential competitors for the party presidency do not have time to organize and gather support). In this respect, the government issued a GEO to amend the rules for electing the county council presidents (EN). According to the new provisions they will be designated by direct election (not through the majority of votes by the county councilors). The decision will enable acting PSD county council presidents to secure better chances to be re-elected, in counties where the social democrats will rank on the first position, but adverse majorities will be formed in the county councils by PNL and USR+PLUS. The measure may be regarded as aimed on increasing the local branches support for Viorica Dancila’ candidacy for the party presidency.


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WEEKLY FISCAL AND POLITICAL REPORT
The final results (RO) of the European Parliament elections confirmed the early estimates. The main opposition parties registered very good electoral performances (PNL has won the elections for the first time in the last decades; USR-PLUS Alliance received its first electoral confirmation as a leading political force). At the same time, governmental parties have had disappointing results (PSD - the lowest electoral score in the last 30 years; ALDE – lost its representation in the EP, not reaching the 5% threshold).


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Special Report on the European Parliament Elections in Romania
The European Parliament Elections in Romania took place on Sunday, May 26. The vote was higher than anticipated in sociological research prior to the vote, with 49.02% of Romanians expressing their option (compared with 39.42% at the legislative elections in 2016). The vote was marked by controversies as many Romanians from abroad were unable to vote, the turnout in the diaspora being a record one. At the same time, on May 26th, Romanians also voted on the referendum on justice organized by Klaus Iohannis and endorsed by PNL. The referendum was validated, a turnout of 41.21% being registered (over the needed threshold of 30%). The referendum has successfully channeled the electoral debate on Justice issues, triggering a very good mobilization of the opposition parties’ electorate. Klaus Iohannis has consolidated also his public profile before this year presidential race.


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Weekly Fiscal & Political Report, May 17 – May 26, 2019
On Sunday, May 26, elections to the European Parliament took place. The vote was higher than anticipated in sociological research prior to the vote, with 49.02% of Romanians expressing their option (compared with 39.42% at the legislative elections in 2016). The vote was marked by controversies as many Romanians from abroad were unable to vote, the turnout in the diaspora being a record one. According to the interim results announced by the Central Electoral Bureau (and based on data from 97% of the polling stations), the National Liberal Party (PNL) would rank first, with 26.79%, followed by the Social Democrat Party (PSD), with 23.38% and the 2020 Alliance (USR+PLUS) 21.41%. The Pro Romania Party with 6.61%, the National Union of Hungarians from Romania (UDMR) with 5.45% and the Popular Movement Party (PMP) with 5.66% would also enter the EP, while the junior government party, ALDE, would likely not enter the EP. The votes received by the parties which will not enter the EP will be redistributed to the ones that will be represented in the EP.


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