Weekly Fiscal and Political Report, 2 - 9 June 2019
The Social Democrat Party is still seeking its way following the conviction of its leader in jail. Party members have remained united so far to maintain government, but tensions have begun to emerge at the end of the week. Viorica Dancila, acting prime minister and interim president of PSD, received the support of most members of the Executive Committee for organizing a party congress at the end of June (EN). This decision benefits Viorica Dăncilă, who will have the first chance to be elected president of the party (other potential competitors for the party presidency do not have time to organize and gather support). In this respect, the government issued a GEO to amend the rules for electing the county council presidents (EN). According to the new provisions they will be designated by direct election (not through the majority of votes by the county councilors). The decision will enable acting PSD county council presidents to secure better chances to be re-elected, in counties where the social democrats will rank on the first position, but adverse majorities will be formed in the county councils by PNL and USR+PLUS. The measure may be regarded as aimed on increasing the local branches support for Viorica Dancila’ candidacy for the party presidency.


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WEEKLY FISCAL AND POLITICAL REPORT
The final results (RO) of the European Parliament elections confirmed the early estimates. The main opposition parties registered very good electoral performances (PNL has won the elections for the first time in the last decades; USR-PLUS Alliance received its first electoral confirmation as a leading political force). At the same time, governmental parties have had disappointing results (PSD - the lowest electoral score in the last 30 years; ALDE – lost its representation in the EP, not reaching the 5% threshold).


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Special Report on the European Parliament Elections in Romania
The European Parliament Elections in Romania took place on Sunday, May 26. The vote was higher than anticipated in sociological research prior to the vote, with 49.02% of Romanians expressing their option (compared with 39.42% at the legislative elections in 2016). The vote was marked by controversies as many Romanians from abroad were unable to vote, the turnout in the diaspora being a record one. At the same time, on May 26th, Romanians also voted on the referendum on justice organized by Klaus Iohannis and endorsed by PNL. The referendum was validated, a turnout of 41.21% being registered (over the needed threshold of 30%). The referendum has successfully channeled the electoral debate on Justice issues, triggering a very good mobilization of the opposition parties’ electorate. Klaus Iohannis has consolidated also his public profile before this year presidential race.


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Weekly Fiscal & Political Report, May 17 – May 26, 2019
On Sunday, May 26, elections to the European Parliament took place. The vote was higher than anticipated in sociological research prior to the vote, with 49.02% of Romanians expressing their option (compared with 39.42% at the legislative elections in 2016). The vote was marked by controversies as many Romanians from abroad were unable to vote, the turnout in the diaspora being a record one. According to the interim results announced by the Central Electoral Bureau (and based on data from 97% of the polling stations), the National Liberal Party (PNL) would rank first, with 26.79%, followed by the Social Democrat Party (PSD), with 23.38% and the 2020 Alliance (USR+PLUS) 21.41%. The Pro Romania Party with 6.61%, the National Union of Hungarians from Romania (UDMR) with 5.45% and the Popular Movement Party (PMP) with 5.66% would also enter the EP, while the junior government party, ALDE, would likely not enter the EP. The votes received by the parties which will not enter the EP will be redistributed to the ones that will be represented in the EP.


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Weekly Fiscal andd Political Report, May 10 – May 17, 2019
The political week did not bring any significant developments. Most political actors have focused their efforts on campaigning actions. In an INSCOP poll released this week, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL) are leading, almost on par, in the voters' preferences - both with over 26% of the preferences of those who say they will come to the vote, respectively 39% of respondents) (EN). As we mentioned before the start of the electoral campaign, political and public pressure on government formations will most likely increase after the European Parliament elections. PNL leader Ludovic Orban announced that his party, together with other opposition forces, will file a no-confidence motion after the European Parliament elections (RO). At the same time, the outcome of the parliamentary elections, even if it will show a shrinking support for the PSD and although it may lead to an increase in internal tensions within the party, will not immediately change the current status quo of the parliamentary forces. The leader of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) stated this week he does not see the possibility of another majority emerging after the European Parliamentary elections (RO) (the support of the Hungarian minority formation is essential for the potential success of a noconfidence motion). A possible censure motion may have an opposite effect than the ne anticipated by its initiators: not to remove the current government, but rather to show the absence of an alternative majority.


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