WEEKLY FISCAL AND POLITICAL REPORT 1 – 7 July, 2019
The Romanian Parliament approved in this week extraordinary session the leadership of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), the members of the Fiscal Council and the new president of the National Audiovisual Council. Mugur Isarescu, the governor of the National Bank of Romania, received the support of parliamentarians for a new term in office of 5 years (the 7th consecutive term) at the helm of the institution (EN). Moreover, PSD's new elected president, Prime Minister Viorica Dancila, decided to send on this occasion a message of political strength, replacing the leader of the party political group from Romania Senate, Serban Nicolae. In the week before, he criticized Viorica Dancila's decision to announce PSD support for the BNR Governor, Mugur Isarescu. With this rapid replacement of PSD Senator leader and the 6-month party suspension for the mayor of District 3, Robert Negoita (EN), Viorica Dancila conveyed to the rest of the party's the image of an authoritative leader, deterring other party members to question in the near future her leadership/performance. The new president of the PSD’ process of strengthening her authority should be expected to continue in the next period - including in the form of a government reshuffle / restructuring, which will remain a likely scenario of evolution over the coming months.


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WEEKLY FISCAL AND POLITICAL REPORT June 23 – June 30, 2019
At the end of this week, an extraordinary Congress of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) took place. On this occasion, Viorica Dancila, interim president of the formation and prime minister of Romania, was elected by a large majority as PSD president. In the second political position as importance from the party, that of the executive president, was elected Eugen Teodorovici, the Minister of Public Finance. Mihai Fifor, the president of the PSD National Council and former Minister of Economy and later of Defense during 2017 - 2018, was elected secretary general of the Social Democratic Party (EN). The clear victory of the new leadership formula indicates that the risk of a new wave of departures from PSD departure is presently reduced in the immediate period. A relatively small number of MPs may choose to leave the party in autumn, negotiating for themselves eligible positions on other parties’ lists for the next November parliamentary elections. Once the subject of the extraordinary Congress was closed, the main subject of internal concern within PSD will be that of a government reshuffle / restructuring, which may take place in the coming weeks. It is worth stressing that the election of Eugen Teodorovich as Executive Chairman the formation, places him in the medium-term future as the main alternative at the party's presidency.


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Weekly Fiscal and Political Report 17 - 23 June 2019
The no-confidence motion against the Government did not receive the number of votes needed to be adopted in the joint plenum of the Parliament. 200 MPs voted in favor of the no-confidence motion, while the threshold for its adoption was of 233 (EN) Following the failure of the no-confidence motion, the stability of the government will no longer be questioned until September - when a new parliamentary session will start and the political opposition will be able to file a new no-confidence motion. However, changes in the current governmental formula may occur in the upcoming period. PM Viorica Dancila entered the race for PSD presidency and in order to increase her chances of being elected in this position at the PSD Congress on June 29, she will be willing to offer positions within the Government (ministerial & state secretaries’ level) to her key potential supporters. The internal expectations in the Social Democrat party regarding the removal from office of government members close to the former party president, Liviu Dragnea, creates a favorable context for Viorica Dancila in making a governmental reshuffle.


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Weekly Fiscal and Political Report - June 10 – June 16, 2019
The parliamentary opposition filed a no confidence motion against the government headed by Viorica Dancila. The motion will be debated and voted on Tuesday, June 18th (EN). In order for it to be adopted, it is necessary that 50% +1 of the Romanian parliamentarians, namely 233, would vote for the government dismissal. At the moment, the motion is more likely to be rejected. The government parties (PSD + ALDE) have 238 MPs. For the censure motion to be adopted, it should be supported by all non-PSD and ALDE parliamentarians, as well as by 6 MPs of the two parties. In addition, it is expected that not all 17 representatives of the national minority group other than the Hungarian minority will support the motion. Opposition parties would need at least 15 to 20 additional votes to pass the motion.


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Weekly Fiscal and Political Report, 2 - 9 June 2019
The Social Democrat Party is still seeking its way following the conviction of its leader in jail. Party members have remained united so far to maintain government, but tensions have begun to emerge at the end of the week. Viorica Dancila, acting prime minister and interim president of PSD, received the support of most members of the Executive Committee for organizing a party congress at the end of June (EN). This decision benefits Viorica Dăncilă, who will have the first chance to be elected president of the party (other potential competitors for the party presidency do not have time to organize and gather support). In this respect, the government issued a GEO to amend the rules for electing the county council presidents (EN). According to the new provisions they will be designated by direct election (not through the majority of votes by the county councilors). The decision will enable acting PSD county council presidents to secure better chances to be re-elected, in counties where the social democrats will rank on the first position, but adverse majorities will be formed in the county councils by PNL and USR+PLUS. The measure may be regarded as aimed on increasing the local branches support for Viorica Dancila’ candidacy for the party presidency.


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